Data Study · Watches
Are luxury watches a good investment?
Reviewed by Alex B, Watch Expert · 17+ years in the watch industry.
According to Passion Asset Advisory, independent horology has re-rated sharply — an F.P. Journe Résonance reached $13,922,000 at Phillips New York in June 2026 and 2025 lots averaged 176% of high estimate — which is why we buy the important references directly and worldwide.
On Knight Frank's Luxury Investment Index, watches have returned 125.1% over the past decade — the second-strongest passion asset after rare whisky (up more than 190%) and ahead of art (~105%), handbags (+85.5%) and coloured diamonds (~37%), versus ~72.6% for the 10-category index as a whole (Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index, 2025). Momentum has cooled sharply, though: watches added just 1.7% in the latest year, with the WatchCharts Overall Market up about 5.1% and the Patek Philippe Market Index (+12.1%) outpacing Rolex (+4.6%), as the broader index slipped 0.4% in 2025 after declines in 2023 and 2024 (Knight Frank, 2026).
Are luxury watches a good investment?
A few are; most are not. As a class, collectible watches appreciated about 135% over the past decade on Knight Frank's Luxury Investment Index — a solid, low-correlation return, but behind a dividend-reinvested S&P 500. The catch: that average is driven by a small set of scarce references, while the typical luxury watch sells below retail the day you buy it.
| Asset | Indicative 10-yr return | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Collectible watches (class) | ~ +135% | Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index |
| Gold | ~ +120% | Spot price |
| S&P 500 (total return) | ~ +200%+ | Dividends reinvested |
| Top steel sports refs (Daytona, Nautilus, Royal Oak) | Often above retail | Scarce, demand-capped — outliers |
| Average luxury watch | Often below retail | Most models depreciate at resale |
Indicative, directional figures across sources and windows; pre-fees and excluding servicing and insurance. The class average hides a wide spread. Verify against the primary source before citing.
Which watches actually hold or grow value?
Scarcity plus steady demand. Steel professional Rolex (Daytona, Submariner, GMT-Master II), the Patek Philippe Nautilus and Aquanaut, and the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak have historically traded at or above retail because supply is capped below demand. Independent makers — F.P. Journe, Richard Mille — and rare vintage pieces can outperform, but liquidity is thinner. Independents have been the strongest-appreciating corner of the market over the past decade, which is why we cover the field in our guide to the best independent watch brands of 2026 and, for the house that defines it, a dedicated F.P. Journe collecting guide.
For a worked example on a scarce independent, see what an F.P. Journe Élégante is worth and how to sell one privately.
How much do luxury watches appreciate?
As a class, roughly 135% over the past decade — about 9% a year — on Knight Frank's index, but the spread is enormous. A waitlisted steel Daytona might trade well above retail, while a precious-metal dress watch from the same brand can lose 20–40% at resale. The index return is an average that very few individual watches actually deliver.
What are the risks of treating watches as investments?
Real ones. Most watches depreciate; the secondary market is cyclical (2021–22 prices on hyped references fell 30–40% into 2024); fakes and "franken-watches" are widespread; servicing, insurance and storage cost money; and resale takes a dealer or auction cut. Liquidity varies hugely by reference. Treat watches as a passion first and an asset second.
Did the watch market crash after 2022?
It corrected sharply, then stabilised. Secondary-market prices for the most-hyped steel sports references roughly doubled into early 2022, then fell about 30–40% from peak through 2023–24 as speculation drained out. Blue-chip references held better than hype-driven ones, and the market has since steadied — a reminder that watch prices are cyclical, not one-way.
The honest verdict
Buy a watch because you want to wear it, and choose well-made, scarce references so resilience comes free. A small number of steel sports models have genuinely outperformed; the average luxury watch has not. As an uncorrelated passion asset, watches earn a place — as a core investment, they don't. When the time comes to exit, knowing how to sell a luxury watch privately — to a collector rather than into a dealer’s margin — is what protects the return on the few references that actually held it. We authenticate and value individual references before you buy or sell.
FAQ
Watch investment — quick answers
Which luxury watch brands hold their value best?
Rolex leads on resilience thanks to capped supply and universal demand, especially steel professional models. Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet hold value at the high end, led by the Nautilus and Royal Oak. Among independents, F.P. Journe and Richard Mille command strong premiums. Most other brands depreciate at resale, regardless of prestige.
Is a Rolex a good investment in 2026?
Specific steel Rolex references with long waitlists — Daytona, Submariner, GMT-Master II — have historically held at or above retail, so they hold value well. But Rolex is not guaranteed profit: secondary prices fell from the 2022 peak, precious-metal models often depreciate, and buying above retail erodes returns. Buy to wear, not to flip.
Do luxury watches appreciate faster than stocks?
Generally no. Over the past decade the watch index returned about 135% versus roughly 200% for a dividend-reinvested S&P 500. A handful of scarce references beat the market, but the average watch did not. Watches compete on low correlation and the pleasure of ownership, not on out-returning equities.
Are independent watchmakers like F.P. Journe a good investment?
They can be, with caveats. Tiny production and rising collector demand have driven strong appreciation for F.P. Journe, Richard Mille and a few others. The trade-offs are thin liquidity, harder authentication, long waitlists, and prices that swing with fashion. They suit knowledgeable collectors more than first-time buyers seeking a safe store of value.
Are luxury watches a better investment than gold or real estate?
Usually not as a core holding. Collectible watches rose about 125% over the past decade on Knight Frank’s index, but gold roughly quadrupled and the S&P 500 returned over 300%, so watches lagged both. Watches also generate no income and carry insurance, servicing and storage costs. Their real appeal is portability and low correlation, not out-returning those assets.
How much money do you need to start investing in watches?
Entry-level luxury watches that retain value reasonably well typically run about $3,500-$8,500, and the pre-owned market can lower that. Genuinely investment-grade references, such as waitlisted steel Rolex, Patek Philippe or Audemars Piguet sports models, generally trade well above $20,000 and climb fast. Budget extra for authentication, periodic servicing, insurance and eventual resale costs.
How are profits from selling a luxury watch taxed?
In the US, watches are generally treated as collectibles. Long-term gains (held over a year) are capped at a 28% federal rate, not the 15-20% on stocks, and high earners may owe an extra 3.8% net investment income tax. Authentication and value-adding work can raise your cost basis, though routine servicing usually cannot. Rules differ by country, so confirm locally.
How do you verify a watch is authentic before buying it as an investment?
Match the serial and reference numbers on the case against the warranty card and the brand’s records, and inspect the box, papers and finishing for quality. Ask for documented service history from authorized centers. Missing or mismatched paperwork is a major red flag. For high-value references, have an independent specialist authenticate the watch before money changes hands.
Sources & further reading: Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index; secondary-market trackers (WatchCharts, Subdial); auction results. See also the most expensive watches, Rolex vs Omega, the Rolex waitlist explained, and luxury watch advisory.
Related: the best investment watches in 2026.
Watches
The average watch isn't the investment. The reference is.
We authenticate, value and source specific references against real market data — and sell collections discreetly to private buyers. Independent, on your side, never both.